Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39bdbb8c142e6d7ead150ea4f78c45e01f93cfc95f0f2ab74bb45b0c51c6cc7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 2c | 2,529$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 52c | 1,258$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.43 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 5c | 999.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 585.5$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 78c | 500.31$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.31 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 35c | 470.59$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.12 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 388.24$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.34 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 39c | 375.56$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.89 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 32c | 350.75$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.32 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.57 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 295$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.91 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 71c | 294.98$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.56 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 67c | 294.93$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.92 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 60c | 294.65$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.76 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 36c | 293.19$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.53 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 266.1$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 232.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 65c | 231.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.74 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 63c | 220.22$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.91 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf839…4407backed No | 65c | 196.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 48c | 184.71$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 170.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 31c | 170.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 165.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 24c | 162.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 71c | 162$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 145.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 71c | 140.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 31c | 133$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 128.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 119.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 56c | 118.69$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 34c | 118.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 67c | 117.3$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 115$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked Yes | 49c | 108$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 32c | 105.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 51c | 102.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 101$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Yes | 27c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 43c | 99.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 69c | 96.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 92.32$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf644…a9afbacked No | 74c | 89.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 54c | 86.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 30c | 83.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 81.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…eed8backed Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 64c | 78.63$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 43c | 76.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 32c | 76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 61c | 68.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 37c | 68.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 35c | 67.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 33c | 66.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 63.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 33c | 63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 31c | 60.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked Yes | 40c | 57.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 56.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 50c | 56.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 35c | 54.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5015…6f9dbacked Yes | 32c | 54.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad71…05cdbacked Yes | 38c | 51.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 30c | 51.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 40c | 50.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 50.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 27c | 49.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 27c | 49.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 66c | 47.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 46.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 40c | 45.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 45.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…862dbacked Yes | 51c | 45.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7a…59a2backed No | 68c | 44.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes | 38c | 43.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 49c | 43.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 38.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 35c | 37.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x020d…9280backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652e…4a94backed Yes | 32c | 36.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 68c | 35.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…1108backed No | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 84°F or higher on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.