Tennis · resolved market
Estoril Open, Qualification: Taro Daniel vs Juan Carlos Prado
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd43d31c74609fffff044c5f6f18e17488c244ede10d3ced4adf462fd92c53934
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Taro Danielof Taro Daniel, Juan Carlos Prado
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Taro Daniel | 79c | 9,496$7,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,978.81 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b1…d21fbacked Juan Carlos Prado | 12c | 6,768$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.31 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47f4…936bbacked Taro Daniel | 60c | 5,063$3,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,036.16 | 141 | 33.3%47 W · 94 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Juan Carlos Prado | 19c | 5,000$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf764…61e6backed Juan Carlos Prado | 4c | 4,131$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 237 | 23.6%56 W · 181 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Taro Daniel | 60c | 2,562$1,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.61 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35a9…2dd7backed Juan Carlos Prado | 42c | 1,701$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.15 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Juan Carlos Prado | 40c | 1,533$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.91 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Juan Carlos Prado | 40c | 1,310$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.83 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Juan Carlos Prado | 44c | 1,000$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Juan Carlos Prado | 30c | 881.51$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.44 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Juan Carlos Prado | 40c | 684.71$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.73 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x421e…1e47backed Juan Carlos Prado | 4c | 614.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Juan Carlos Prado | 41c | 600$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa102…6b5bbacked Juan Carlos Prado | 37c | 530.32$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.76 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Juan Carlos Prado | 41c | 421.66$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.89 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -10.2wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…4fffbacked Juan Carlos Prado | 11c | 392.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Taro Daniel | 54c | 386.65$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.49 | 1,023 | 41.3%422 W · 601 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc81…e889backed Juan Carlos Prado | 41c | 385.31$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.4 | 179 | 42.5%76 W · 103 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Taro Daniel | 77c | 308.86$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.41 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Juan Carlos Prado | 41c | 281.98$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.61 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Juan Carlos Prado | 26c | 258.41$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Taro Daniel | 52c | 252.03$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.22 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Juan Carlos Prado | 41c | 250$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 528 | 47%248 W · 280 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Juan Carlos Prado | 36c | 246.68$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 464 | 35.3%164 W · 300 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Juan Carlos Prado | 41c | 240$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Juan Carlos Prado | 41c | 203.71$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.32 | 124 | 44.4%55 W · 69 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba7…dd5abacked Taro Daniel | 50c | 200.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 175 | 54.3%95 W · 80 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Juan Carlos Prado | 40c | 151$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3144…9502backed Taro Daniel | 59c | 131.14$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Taro Daniel | 52c | 129.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Juan Carlos Prado | 40c | 119.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…4134backed Taro Daniel | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 449 | 49.4%222 W · 227 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Taro Daniel | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 834 | 47.5%396 W · 438 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Taro Daniel | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Juan Carlos Prado | 41c | 90.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2b…0900backed Taro Daniel | 62c | 85.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Taro Daniel | 59c | 84.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 678 | 52.1%353 W · 325 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…f218backed Taro Daniel | 59c | 82.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 357 | 53.8%192 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Juan Carlos Prado | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…206cbacked Juan Carlos Prado | 41c | 79.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 856 | 37.7%323 W · 533 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe95…1a93backed Juan Carlos Prado | 41c | 78.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 116 | 42.2%49 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…a213backed Taro Daniel | 66c | 73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 372 | 66.7%248 W · 124 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…9cfbbacked Taro Daniel | 55c | 73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 357 | 47.9%171 W · 186 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…1d21backed Taro Daniel | 59c | 66.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 523 | 41.5%217 W · 306 L | -12.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Taro Daniel | 53c | 56.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Juan Carlos Prado | 41c | 55.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 503 | 40%201 W · 302 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Juan Carlos Prado | 40c | 49.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 56.6%111 W · 85 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Juan Carlos Prado | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Juan Carlos Prado | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…f6ecbacked Juan Carlos Prado | 41c | 39.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2acd…d0b6backed Taro Daniel | 59c | 33.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 141 | 53.2%75 W · 66 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Taro Daniel | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x205d…2ad2backed Taro Daniel | 58c | 28.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 223 | 66.8%149 W · 74 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d9…b1b1backed Juan Carlos Prado | 50c | 25.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 507 | 36.1%183 W · 324 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…d9ebbacked Taro Daniel | 59c | 25.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Taro Daniel | 59c | 25.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Taro Daniel | 58c | 19.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Taro Daniel | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Taro Daniel | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 1,853 | 57.7%1,069 W · 784 L | +106.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.