Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd49f30fa09ffd62b191ac8c4509b2e5fc529e1acdaff74e580cd3a182b4beff6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Pipsqueak+4, Amaru Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea61…cc32backed Amaru Gaming | 9c | 6,241$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.99 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Pipsqueak+4 | 64c | 3,985$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,434.57 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 65c | 1,015$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.28 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 64c | 743.52$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.14 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Amaru Gaming | 32c | 600$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.9 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Amaru Gaming | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.35 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…c2eabacked Pipsqueak+4 | 69c | 470$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.7 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Amaru Gaming | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Pipsqueak+4 | 78c | 195.84$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Amaru Gaming | 7c | 176.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Amaru Gaming | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d54…8d9abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 70c | 72.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…9eeebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 63c | 62.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Pipsqueak+4 | 65c | 57.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…8aa8backed Pipsqueak+4 | 67c | 29.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3050…da3ebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 70c | 22.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328f…5b72backed Pipsqueak+4 | 68c | 17.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Pipsqueak+4 | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.