Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe852d906190d58ff3928591b07ff14eef5f0ab69014ede4021442084687b62ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Pipsqueak+4, Amaru Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Amaru Gaming | 22c | 3,786$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.57 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Amaru Gaming | 27c | 1,824$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.11 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 73c | 1,574$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.71 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 72c | 1,132$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.96 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…a26fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 75c | 660$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Amaru Gaming | 35c | 565.33$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…089bbacked Amaru Gaming | 28c | 431.53$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.55 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Amaru Gaming | 7c | 217.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Amaru Gaming | 24c | 204.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Amaru Gaming | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed Amaru Gaming | 32c | 145.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Amaru Gaming | 34c | 130$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…6f98backed Pipsqueak+4 | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Pipsqueak+4 | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3050…da3ebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 71c | 22.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328f…5b72backed Pipsqueak+4 | 70c | 17.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…e30ebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.