Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4acfbd6e4b85b4963008f04cb6638cc2a0612d18bafe00892cc7516d3c8ae00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.63 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 2c | 1,179$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 5c | 891.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 4c | 755.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 16c | 747.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.07 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 588.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 11c | 553.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 449.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 6c | 443.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 360.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 9c | 335.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 10c | 299.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 4c | 292.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 17c | 292$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 11c | 274.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 261.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 8c | 238.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e02…ce11backed Yes | 5c | 196.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 11c | 196.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fae…4b53backed Yes | 11c | 148.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 10c | 138.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 15c | 135.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…ac42backed Yes | 9c | 134.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…bb43backed Yes | 16c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 16c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 14c | 82.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 17c | 61.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 80c | 38.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 13.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.