Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c2eae3b165d104bdc7fc2e5713df9a42193795e35902a54c5c844c49f88e365
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 34c | 624.77$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.06 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 27c | 604$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.2 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 7c | 493.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 459.24$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…6004backed Yes | 74c | 449.92$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.42 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 320.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ac…a769backed Yes | 40c | 305.02$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.02 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 293.46$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.73 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 265$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 258.42$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 233.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 217$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 56c | 202.07$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.79 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 197.81$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.16 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 172.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 167.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 142.21$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 69c | 137.68$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 136.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8e02…ce11backed Yes | 32c | 130.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.41 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 28c | 130$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 38c | 128.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 126.75$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 76c | 125.7$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 124.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 122.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 65c | 121.06$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 36c | 120.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.18 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 40c | 110.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 43c | 106.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 34c | 103.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.52 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 102$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked No | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 40c | 95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 53c | 94.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 59c | 86.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 62c | 83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 57c | 81.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 40c | 76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 63c | 75.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea7…1523backed Yes | 44c | 73.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 69.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 47c | 63.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 47c | 63.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6efa…1a9bbacked Yes | 37c | 53.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 68c | 52.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…d79fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 42c | 49.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 48.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c53…3145backed Yes | 39c | 48.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…1ad3backed Yes | 37c | 45.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +72%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 52c | 38.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 36.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd556…6713backed Yes | 56c | 33.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9237…1433backed Yes | 53c | 32.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 54c | 29.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 28.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 62c | 23.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 22.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 47c | 21.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 58c | 20.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7688…7d0dbacked Yes | 49c | 20.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 53c | 18.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 72c | 18.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 16.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x947a…6606backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.5wins | -0.59per pick | 75cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac1b…92bbbacked Yes | 74c | 14.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.