Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38b5471f565bb1befca7ee77034e80c9b0619fa6e4a6bf7fb8b3ff8850a6e8e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 35c | 3,646$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.04 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 719.97$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.42 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 64c | 690.66$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.86 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 637$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.86 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 35c | 544.4$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.75 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 37c | 408.85$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.98 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 404$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.32 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 4c | 399.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 19c | 390.2$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 377.36$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 334.06$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked No | 63c | 318.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 40c | 300$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.35 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 293$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 279.04$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.44 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 39c | 268.93$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.98 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 265$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 258.04$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 255$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.07 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 215.71$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 63c | 179.82$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 14c | 179.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 171.82$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 66c | 166.1$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 165.71$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 160.83$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 42c | 155$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 41c | 151.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 30c | 150.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 145.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad0…0284backed No | 65c | 141$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.47 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 9c | 139.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 26c | 138.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 37c | 136.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 40c | 129.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 127.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 126.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 58c | 123.33$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 37c | 122.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 121.53$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 121.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 19c | 120.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 61c | 119.69$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 36c | 109.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 14c | 104.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 104.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 101.44$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 100.92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…87d1backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd556…6713backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 27c | 96.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 64c | 92.66$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 67c | 92.4$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 38c | 89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3588…fb71backed Yes | 43c | 83.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 65c | 79.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 28c | 74.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 70.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 19c | 66.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 57c | 62.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 42c | 62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 24c | 58.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 29c | 55.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…d79fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3476…8b53backed Yes | 35c | 46.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6efa…1a9bbacked No | 68c | 44.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 40c | 39.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 56c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f7…87a0backed Yes | 33c | 38.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…9502backed No | 77c | 37.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 62c | 36.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbc…9282backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 35.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 59c | 33.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 39c | 32.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 40c | 31.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae4…7084backed No | 76c | 31.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 79c | 29.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a6…c753backed No | 58c | 28.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.