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CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Vitalem Aerem vs 5star (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia Cup #1 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Vitalem Aeremof Vitalem Aerem, 5star
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,816
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,231

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,816 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc0e4…dd38backed Vitalem Aerem71c384.9$275 inWon+$110.0751756.3%291 W · 226 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked 5star27c227.88$62 inLost-$62.055,18337.1%1,924 W · 3,259 L-274.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e39…ed5fbacked Vitalem Aerem71c197.49$140 inWon+$57.72977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+20.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3685…6d99backed Vitalem Aerem45c174.16$78 inWon+$96.0613449.3%66 W · 68 L+10.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+23.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed Vitalem Aerem44c154.09$67 inWon+$86.6651042.7%218 W · 292 L-17.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed 5star26c141.83$37 inLost-$36.754,16550.9%2,119 W · 2,046 L+70.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed 5star57c138.48$79 inLost-$78.9320945.5%95 W · 114 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Vitalem Aerem48c100$48 inWon+$521,49652.9%791 W · 705 L+30.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed 5star55c60.63$33 inLost-$33.181,99547.5%948 W · 1,047 L-55.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa62b…58aabacked Vitalem Aerem34c58.57$20 inWon+$38.5719346.6%90 W · 103 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked 5star27c51.13$14 inLost-$13.8493645.3%424 W · 512 L+1.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb2c…f5bebacked 5star53c50$27 inLost-$26.52050%10 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed 5star35c49.99$17 inLost-$17.541333.9%140 W · 273 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Vitalem Aerem66c47$31 inWon+$15.782,44246.8%1,142 W · 1,300 L-54.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked 5star42c46$19 inLost-$19.172,63434.6%912 W · 1,722 L-204.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed 5star35c44.67$16 inLost-$15.781045.9%372 W · 438 L-24.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Vitalem Aerem47c37.61$18 inWon+$19.7678148.3%377 W · 404 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Vitalem Aerem70c36.76$26 inWon+$112,24147.6%1,067 W · 1,174 L-59.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86f8…2ed6backed Vitalem Aerem62c35$22 inWon+$13.33452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c42…c8a8backed 5star40c31.5$13 inLost-$12.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb7a…b8bdbacked Vitalem Aerem65c30.77$20 inWon+$10.779272.8%67 W · 25 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf066…3349backed Vitalem Aerem54c30$16 inWon+$13.748247.6%39 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Vitalem Aerem45c24.37$11 inWon+$13.485051.8%440 W · 410 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ab4…74b7backed Vitalem Aerem44c23.27$10 inWon+$13.032347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked 5star59c20$12 inLost-$11.731,98442.2%838 W · 1,146 L-74.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.