Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Henry Bernet
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd522a6031bd154e0fb09a3d63531090d1ec4ab8f92b6069445ba89288b135194
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ruizof Ruiz, Bernet
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ruiz | 59c | 3,355$1,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.94 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Ruiz | 62c | 1,739$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.65 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Bernet | 40c | 1,674$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.6 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Bernet | 38c | 1,400$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Bernet | 24c | 1,092$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.57 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Bernet | 24c | 1,019$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.57 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -5.8wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Bernet | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Ruiz | 71c | 566.87$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.02 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Ruiz | 60c | 474$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.6 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Ruiz | 78c | 437$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.32 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Ruiz | 79c | 339.82$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 255 | 42%107 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Ruiz | 60c | 333.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.58 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe516…1d31backed Ruiz | 63c | 264.47$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 179 | 62.6%112 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ruiz | 66c | 221.26$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Bernet | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Ruiz | 48c | 185.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.57 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ruiz | 79c | 167.15$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Bernet | 40c | 131.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bernet | 40c | 131.48$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…ed2ebacked Ruiz | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…252bbacked Ruiz | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bernet | 39c | 98.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Bernet | 43c | 93.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Bernet | 46c | 90.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Ruiz | 61c | 82.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bernet | 29c | 76.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x114f…4602backed Bernet | 69c | 70.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 77cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Bernet | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 341 | 54.3%185 W · 156 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Bernet | 39c | 66.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 872 | 51.1%446 W · 426 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…ca77backed Ruiz | 60c | 61.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Bernet | 40c | 42.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 138 | 47.8%66 W · 72 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc837…2e91backed Ruiz | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -5.6wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd8…e7d4backed Bernet | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…aca7backed Bernet | 65c | 38.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Ruiz | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa0…ab7dbacked Ruiz | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500c…883cbacked Ruiz | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…efbbbacked Bernet | 72c | 14.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 79cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Henry Bernetthis page
- Ruiz vs. Bernet: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Ruiz vs. Bernet: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Ruiz vs. Bernet: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Ruiz vs BernetBernet won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.