Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5300503e0acc24d8c69198c8804293d76430cd4606bb3445e285d99ca8896b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,146 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 556$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 325.79$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 62c | 294.58$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.54 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 34c | 269.88$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.23 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 63c | 248.94$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.3 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 248.42$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 63c | 187.38$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.97 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 60c | 183.6$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.19 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e87…ab6cbacked No | 72c | 155.48$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 38c | 153.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 72c | 149.05$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.69 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 120.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 112.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 38c | 105.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 36c | 105$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed Yes | 74c | 102.23$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 66c | 100.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.59 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 44c | 85.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 30c | 75.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 75.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 31c | 73.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 34c | 70.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…8622backed Yes | 48c | 61.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 46c | 61.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 42c | 61.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed No | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 37c | 57.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 62c | 53.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 36c | 51.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 51.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 33c | 49.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…5994backed Yes | 41c | 48.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…738cbacked No | 66c | 47.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 57c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 41.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked No | 66c | 40.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 29c | 38.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed No | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed No | 61c | 32.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…14debacked Yes | 34c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 43c | 28.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 63c | 27.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 66c | 26.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1887…ebc9backed No | 48c | 26.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 26.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 25.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked No | 63c | 21.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 70c | 21.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdf…4056backed Yes | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…cc82backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 19.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 62c | 17.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 64c | 17.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.