Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd42bdbe8a7f346405151e240a9365cc987db0f1c686a6f828389996738ad8e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,159 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 31c | 579.48$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.84 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 570$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 79c | 491.84$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 416.83$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 25c | 400$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 34c | 399.81$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.38 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 342.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 28c | 327.72$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 253.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked Yes | 14c | 231.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 221.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 186.9$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 9c | 183.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 17c | 178.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 174.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 25c | 154$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 23c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 18c | 146.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 76c | 141.41$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 68c | 135.78$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed No | 74c | 135.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 131.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…29c9backed No | 72c | 130.36$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 28c | 127.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 20c | 119.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 16c | 114.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 71c | 109.57$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 21c | 99.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 96.8$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 19c | 85.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 82.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed No | 59c | 81.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 71.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 74c | 67.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc075…cdd2backed Yes | 22c | 65.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 32c | 58.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 22c | 55.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…70b2backed Yes | 19c | 54.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7646…3c80backed Yes | 24c | 53.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…af44backed No | 73c | 53.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 27c | 50.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…5421backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…5dc8backed Yes | 21c | 49.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69c…44dbbacked No | 76c | 39.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1887…ebc9backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…06b3backed No | 77c | 34.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f4…9b28backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb3…f9efbacked No | 75c | 31.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 67c | 27.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 76c | 26.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933f…e9c6backed No | 76c | 26.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…0051backed No | 78c | 25.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…738cbacked No | 64c | 24.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ab…823bbacked No | 52c | 23.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 73c | 21.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 73c | 19.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae4…255dbacked No | 75c | 17.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2739…8faabacked No | 80c | 15.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…77d7backed No | 79c | 15.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 76c | 13.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…f2cfbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…9e9ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 39 | 87.2%34 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.