Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd547d3550b99aeed306bc1c100505c8440706614a32c02d5f808c7de59974308
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- G2 Esportsof Bilibili Gaming, G2 Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ade…e692backed Bilibili Gaming | 28c | 1,053$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.04 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked G2 Esports | 73c | 733.34$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.59 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked G2 Esports | 72c | 671.48$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.98 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9a…796cbacked G2 Esports | 73c | 641.94$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.48 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Bilibili Gaming | 25c | 640.22$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.98 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Bilibili Gaming | 26c | 600.42$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.42 | 312 | 32.7%102 W · 210 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Bilibili Gaming | 27c | 357.66$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff6a…881cbacked G2 Esports | 75c | 286.27$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.48 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Bilibili Gaming | 24c | 218.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…b49abacked G2 Esports | 74c | 188.77$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed G2 Esports | 72c | 158.52$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 621 | 56.4%350 W · 271 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Bilibili Gaming | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 361 | 38.5%139 W · 222 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521f…3344backed G2 Esports | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6794…c10dbacked G2 Esports | 76c | 128.45$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Bilibili Gaming | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…8c7abacked G2 Esports | 76c | 69.36$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…a54cbacked Bilibili Gaming | 29c | 49.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Bilibili Gaming | 26c | 39.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 395 | 45.8%181 W · 214 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…c55ebacked G2 Esports | 75c | 29.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…fd7fbacked G2 Esports | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 73cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc088…0809backed G2 Esports | 76c | 27.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c43…224cbacked G2 Esports | 73c | 23.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed G2 Esports | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…4080backed G2 Esports | 70c | 14.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.