NHL · resolved market
Sabres vs. Flames: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd578615554fda632ac8639cd5ee0887122f3aa8a29e5603d777f3065fa24f76b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2aa6…6b31backed Over | 56c | 26,800$15,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,792 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…9eb1backed Under | 44c | 19,500$8,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,580 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…f531backed Under | 44c | 7,300$3,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,212 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…a686backed Under | 43c | 2,286$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.98 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a81…aa82backed Over | 57c | 2,286$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 983.43$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.66 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 57c | 600$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 43c | 455.57$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.9 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b8…5cf9backed Over | 57c | 350.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.75 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2d…6e9fbacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 56c | 162.35$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 43c | 114.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 44c | 102.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Over | 56c | 99.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0e…47b7backed Over | 57c | 88.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Over | 56c | 71.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…5903backed Over | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 42c | 63.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 55c | 63.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed Over | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 253 | 58.5%148 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5a…0572backed Under | 45c | 61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc184…1b61backed Under | 44c | 58.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 457 | 56.2%257 W · 200 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 56c | 49.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Under | 43c | 46.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004c…7052backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…b9f6backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…d962backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…7db3backed Over | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x146f…9410backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabres vs. Flames: O/U 5.5this page
- Sabres vs. FlamesFlames won
- Sabres vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Flames (-1.5)Flames won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.