Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd58a3a181d9ae5f687074ce3b1e3339068e127e608accb0b7c5e79594b87c13e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 320.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 222.98$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked No | 80c | 201.4$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 169.58$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 28c | 150.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 19c | 141.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 29c | 125.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 124.46$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 30c | 112.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 33c | 104.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 17c | 101$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd293…a4e3backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 35c | 85.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 83.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 77.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 18c | 67.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 24c | 66.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 65.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3f95backed No | 77c | 64.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…fc41backed Yes | 27c | 60.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 56.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 19c | 54.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…03c2backed Yes | 20c | 51.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 29c | 47.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 40.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 35.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…07b5backed No | 76c | 30.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 75c | 29.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 63c | 28.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 74c | 26.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 22.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 22.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…42fcbacked No | 75c | 21.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 63 | 84.1%53 W · 10 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed No | 64c | 19.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 19.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 74c | 16.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.