Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad7b27160e26f98469f6eec5f7e2ab43b8cd5265f7b5484e264031f633ea97b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd293…a4e3backed Yes | 70c | 339.03$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.55 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 238.54$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 51c | 188.93$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.19 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 150$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed No | 63c | 125.14$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa06f…cbadbacked No | 61c | 125.12$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 47c | 120.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc271…a2debacked No | 42c | 114.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 68c | 110.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 108.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 49c | 108$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 43c | 95.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 38c | 90.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 87.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 35c | 85.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 42c | 85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 83.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 58c | 82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 79.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 63c | 75.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 39c | 68.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 65.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 50c | 64.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 49c | 63.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 31c | 63.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 62.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 62.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 54c | 60.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 17c | 60.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a8…552fbacked Yes | 42c | 59.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 38c | 59.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 58.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 48c | 51.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 47c | 50.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 51c | 49.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 41c | 48.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 58c | 47.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 35c | 44.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 61c | 40.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 54c | 39.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…03c2backed Yes | 40c | 38.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…fc41backed Yes | 40c | 37.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 44c | 33.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 32.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 64c | 30.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 48c | 30.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 51c | 30.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 61c | 29.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 44c | 28.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 51c | 27.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 49c | 26.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 49c | 25.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…f31dbacked No | 58c | 24.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 62c | 23.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 22.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…bc87backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 65c | 21.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 20.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 17.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.