Tennis · resolved market
ITF M15 Krakow Men: Pawel Juszczak vs Mate Valkusz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd58b3152d12f246c7a1240a080c361a4d82d90d902e05bb1f44fc57aa9199d8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pawel Juszczakof Pawel Juszczak, Mate Valkusz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mate Valkusz | 65c | 320.49$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.57 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Pawel Juszczak | 35c | 309.23$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.96 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Mate Valkusz | 76c | 239.86$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.43 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Pawel Juszczak | 43c | 230.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.8 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…eea1backed Pawel Juszczak | 42c | 186.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +71%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Mate Valkusz | 61c | 160.01$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 883 | 58.2%514 W · 369 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…1cebbacked Pawel Juszczak | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.06 | 209 | 39.7%83 W · 126 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…5253backed Pawel Juszczak | 33c | 116.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.34 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8468…3860backed Mate Valkusz | 58c | 115.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 242 | 31%75 W · 167 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Pawel Juszczak | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.83 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec3…e330backed Pawel Juszczak | 40c | 91.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 433 | 47.3%205 W · 228 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…eeb9backed Pawel Juszczak | 37c | 79.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 291 | 47.8%139 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…016abacked Mate Valkusz | 75c | 73.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 370 | 58.4%216 W · 154 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Mate Valkusz | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Pawel Juszczak | 25c | 66.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe37f…6635backed Mate Valkusz | 67c | 66.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Mate Valkusz | 67c | 58.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 648 | 37.5%243 W · 405 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Mate Valkusz | 38c | 56.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Pawel Juszczak | 47c | 53.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…c6f3backed Pawel Juszczak | 40c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Mate Valkusz | 59c | 46.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4b…50c5backed Pawel Juszczak | 78c | 44.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…a6b8backed Pawel Juszczak | 33c | 44.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc02…ce2abacked Pawel Juszczak | 70c | 42.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 215 | 72.6%156 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Mate Valkusz | 55c | 37.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea5…6c53backed Pawel Juszczak | 40c | 33.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 218 | 48.2%105 W · 113 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb389…5032backed Mate Valkusz | 61c | 26.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Mate Valkusz | 65c | 21.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Mate Valkusz | 66c | 20.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 423 | 59.1%250 W · 173 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Mate Valkusz | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 821 | 59.4%488 W · 333 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dc…c980backed Pawel Juszczak | 75c | 16.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 70 | 75.7%53 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.