Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5adb2a796c5eb5e2b7e9edd230111a839ee280fb0ba2ca5496bf7ee31e8d88d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b48…85d2backed No | 1c | 2,613$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 9c | 800.88$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 616.47$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 29c | 508.06$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.46 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 8c | 467.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 63c | 196.4$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.32 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 39c | 194.09$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 34c | 153.48$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.28 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 152.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 69c | 144.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 75c | 128.8$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 78c | 128.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 122.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…5c51backed Yes | 37c | 118.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.36 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 118.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.25 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 111.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.27 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 54c | 102.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 16c | 85.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…07cfbacked No | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 79.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…2112backed Yes | 65c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 61c | 45.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 62c | 44.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 45c | 44.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 64c | 42.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 65c | 30.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…f461backed Yes | 65c | 29.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 58c | 27.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c68…75bcbacked Yes | 64c | 23.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed No | 62c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 21.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 65c | 18.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 58c | 17.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.