Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5b0e1452280a7c4b32b3f808ebfae8a4de19bcc029c75c94590aea2e9126e5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 740.84$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 21c | 535.06$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 12c | 515.28$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 21c | 392.65$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…a808backed Yes | 17c | 389.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 20c | 336.31$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 274.69$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 250.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa61…97dabacked Yes | 14c | 230.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 9c | 199.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 13c | 170.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 161.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 7c | 149.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 22c | 140$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 55c | 136.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 78c | 119.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 76c | 118.89$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…485fbacked Yes | 31c | 103.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 16c | 100.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 21c | 89.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked Yes | 22c | 76.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 74.57$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 76c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 45c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 20c | 50.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 72c | 48.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 32.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 31.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…4f66backed No | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 26.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 69c | 17.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2338…a7f7backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.