Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf599231d9325e07e0444e7aa14df408a0dd1477ce2a9254911159cd36a450a0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 2,577$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 17c | 739.93$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.57 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 26c | 712.3$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.05 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed No | 76c | 586.45$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.29 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 76c | 552.09$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.54 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 73c | 417.86$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.44 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 374.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 80c | 364.34$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 265.55$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 27c | 256.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.19 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 16c | 199.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…27fbbacked Yes | 20c | 194.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa059…dbcfbacked No | 73c | 154.13$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 28c | 151.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 30c | 136.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 31c | 127.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 15c | 120.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 15c | 120.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 78c | 108.87$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 95.11$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 90.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 77c | 89.27$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 85.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 29c | 83.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 24c | 82.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 74.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 72.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 29c | 67.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 29c | 66.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 53c | 57.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 77c | 52.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 44.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 37.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed Yes | 42c | 37.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…4531backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…056cbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 79c | 22.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…a510backed No | 75c | 20.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 75c | 20.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…22b5backed No | 70c | 20.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 77c | 20.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x876e…6824backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 18.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…dbe4backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.