Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc9dee0c0c457e80a0cf72d1fa78cd654cfb5550124fe65a0d19cfa71cbca461
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 64c | 517.29$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.05 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 61c | 500.88$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.89 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 67c | 453$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.11 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 32c | 433.81$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.22 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 34c | 382.14$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.42 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 31c | 343.37$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.14 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 39c | 316.09$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.79 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 291.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4550…0f28backed No | 41c | 241.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 65c | 238.77$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.38 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e37…a7d5backed No | 42c | 210$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 25c | 203.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 61c | 181.32$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 38c | 161$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 60c | 149.42$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 18c | 141.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 134.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 63c | 128.66$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 57c | 119.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 103.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…485fbacked Yes | 51c | 101.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 35c | 100.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 37c | 99.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 62c | 96.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 55c | 94.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 52c | 94.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 35c | 92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 13c | 88.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 85.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 84.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 34c | 80.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 58c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 64c | 74.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 27c | 72.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 63c | 71.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa008…a38abacked No | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 60c | 59.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 73c | 57.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 52c | 57.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed No | 40c | 56.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 64c | 54.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 31c | 52.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 39c | 49.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 28c | 47.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 65c | 46.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 36c | 44.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…e0a9backed No | 40c | 42.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 53c | 40.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc651…895bbacked No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 60c | 37.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 35.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 49c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 43c | 33.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked No | 39c | 32.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…c0fabacked Yes | 74c | 32.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 62c | 31.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87e…acd3backed No | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.44per pick | 53cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed No | 46c | 24.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked No | 55c | 22.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 68c | 20.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x876e…6824backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 68c | 17.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.