Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Valentova (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5ba69b0bf10a55db306669f339f6df2c2aa260a0e00cfa99a43928ab32ebfcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rybakinaof Rybakina, Valentova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Valentova | 41c | 685.87$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.5 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Rybakina | 59c | 600$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…3b80backed Valentova | 41c | 579.81$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.72 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Rybakina | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Valentova | 23c | 239.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e78…52b5backed Rybakina | 77c | 188.91$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…96d1backed Valentova | 35c | 142.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 465 | 65.6%305 W · 160 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…e9d3backed Rybakina | 77c | 116.88$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Rybakina | 58c | 113$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…6124backed Rybakina | 59c | 108.47$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Valentova | 27c | 77.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rybakina | 57c | 65.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Valentova | 50c | 65.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Rybakina | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…1d2cbacked Valentova | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 214 | 55.1%118 W · 96 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Rybakina | 58c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4161…272dbacked Rybakina | 60c | 54.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddf…c9a6backed Rybakina | 68c | 51.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Rybakina | 59c | 40.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…6d13backed Valentova | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…91fdbacked Rybakina | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16c…9d62backed Rybakina | 60c | 38.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 352 | 48.6%171 W · 181 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed Valentova | 42c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Valentova | 41c | 31.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4182…ae54backed Valentova | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…6febbacked Valentova | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed Valentova | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x269b…0a3fbacked Rybakina | 60c | 21.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Rybakina | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 348 | 51.1%178 W · 170 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Valentova (+1.5)this page
- Australian Open Women's: Elena Rybakina vs Tereza ValentovaRybakina won
- Rybakina vs. Valentova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Rybakina vs. Valentova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Rybakina vs. Valentova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs ValentovaRybakina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.