Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Elena Rybakina vs Tereza Valentova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x904914a030558164b1a993cc2e545c6c2fefcb557236ac2cb423fc52313ffe49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rybakinaof Rybakina, Valentova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9e6…2f0fbacked Valentova | 11c | 13,183$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Rybakina | 77c | 3,595$2,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.19 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Valentova | 12c | 3,403$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.9 | 191 | 34%65 W · 126 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Valentova | 31c | 3,215$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 447 | 54.4%243 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb4…3214backed Valentova | 18c | 3,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…d663backed Valentova | 7c | 2,700$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Valentova | 15c | 2,510$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b9…0598backed Valentova | 29c | 2,499$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Valentova | 16c | 2,454$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.05 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Valentova | 18c | 1,395$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…af49backed Rybakina | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…4cf8backed Valentova | 6c | 557.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…0db4backed Valentova | 10c | 525$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 545 | 47.9%261 W · 284 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Valentova | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 287 | 26.8%77 W · 210 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Valentova | 8c | 485.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Valentova | 17c | 474.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.75 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Valentova | 21c | 352.65$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Rybakina | 76c | 349$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.76 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed Valentova | 6c | 333.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked Valentova | 13c | 327.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Valentova | 17c | 303.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Valentova | 19c | 300.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Valentova | 10c | 230.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Valentova | 17c | 194$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 380 | 48.4%184 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked Rybakina | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Valentova | 17c | 147.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…15e5backed Rybakina | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Valentova | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Valentova | 15c | 113$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…0d03backed Valentova | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 57.8%96 W · 70 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Rybakina | 75c | 110$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Valentova | 20c | 104$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Valentova | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe563…0cf5backed Valentova | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Valentova | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Valentova | 17c | 73.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Valentova | 18c | 55.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Elena Rybakina vs Tereza Valentovathis page
- Rybakina vs. Valentova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Rybakina vs. Valentova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Rybakina vs. Valentova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs ValentovaRybakina won
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Valentova (+1.5)Rybakina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.