MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5cdaff6c41f7a0a5a921beeab80da2f31be9aa6e5cb7988673f628c95becc73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 5,748$3,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,577.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 5,445$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,449.61 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 1,555$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 948.51$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.56 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 946.43$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.67 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 689.52$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.01 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 323.43$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.52 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 73c | 287.64$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.12 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 268.41$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.1 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 253.37$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.09 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 190.03$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.82 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 180.53$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.73 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 169.27$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 161.28$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.83 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 33c | 145.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 135.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.37 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Minnesota Twins | 46c | 101.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 74.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Minnesota Twins | 47c | 52.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 52.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 49.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 48.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 47.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 47.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 46.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 41.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 34.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d1…0501backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 31.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 28.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 26.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…340fbacked Minnesota Twins | 48c | 25.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 21.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e3…ff82backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 19.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-5.5)Minnesota Twins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.