MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf07e12c963e908c3683eaa58fd4d4b66c69b0ac7143fadf71e079bc2dd004f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Under | 50c | 19,400$9,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,700 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +7.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x861a…1f15backed Over | 50c | 18,362$9,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,181.06 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.98 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 50c | 1,023$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.94 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 50c | 970$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 47c | 942.87$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.22 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 49c | 803.64$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.27 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Under | 53c | 651.07$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.59 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 49c | 533.68$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.18 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 32c | 530.47$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.53 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 47c | 412$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.64 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 51c | 380.63$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.12 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 47c | 360.17$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.28 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 49c | 297.73$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.45 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…4342backed Over | 50c | 291$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 51c | 234.98$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.14 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 53c | 203.8$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.79 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 188.78$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 50c | 135.32$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 49c | 132.55$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…c2b6backed Over | 51c | 123.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Over | 25c | 117.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 52c | 83.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa81f…eed2backed Over | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1434…d63bbacked Under | 56c | 40.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 74c | 36.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e3…ff82backed Over | 45c | 29.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 59c | 29.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 23.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked Under | 55c | 20.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x07c0…5dd2backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 184 | 58.2%107 W · 77 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-5.5)Minnesota Twins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.