MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5da5f97c915128a9b40c65c97cbab4718c887d1d839e1a95ad8446d984d62fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 430.73$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.01 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Baltimore Orioles | 9c | 299.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 291.94$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.34 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 204$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 194.65$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 139.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 138$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 125.7$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 118.74$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 87.51$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 76.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 75.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 60.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 51.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 49.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 48.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 38.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 29.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 29.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e3…ff82backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 28.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 20.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 20.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.