MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bc9671fb3b633cd93d7cde60404ef7074a64cd572150efdc3a6ec15c16c4eec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Over | 60c | 25,835$15,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,396.93 | 981 | 49.9%490 W · 491 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 9,449$4,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,228.08 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 40c | 7,575$3,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,030.08 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 41c | 5,980$2,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,452.47 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 40c | 3,210$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,283.92 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 38c | 2,421$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,489.23 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 56c | 1,106$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.37 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 44c | 1,103$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.74 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Under | 54c | 1,042$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.68 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 46c | 1,008$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.45 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed Under | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…36b0backed Under | 54c | 869.08$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.3 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 1c | 800$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 40c | 482$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.8 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3354…5042backed Under | 60c | 326.93$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.16 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 20c | 256.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 40c | 230.76$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 41c | 178.54$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.21 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Under | 58c | 168.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 43c | 167.12$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.44 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 42c | 159.47$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 39c | 158.83$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 62c | 153.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.98 | 529 | 55.6%294 W · 235 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 42c | 130$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 10c | 124$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 41c | 115.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 107.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 34c | 96.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 71c | 66.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Under | 43c | 56.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 54c | 56.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 60c | 48.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 56c | 46.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 31c | 42.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 34c | 41.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 43c | 39.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 72c | 38.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 66c | 37.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 44c | 36.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 44c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 60c | 24.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 57c | 19.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.