MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5e4f75ea70e7131780ef73050571970901eb59b2546349c826267ec13135206
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Seattle Mariners, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 19,425$11,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,753.66 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 17,283$7,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,777.54 | 1,436 | 49.3%708 W · 728 L | -6.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 31c | 6,668$2,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,069.01 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 2,548$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.2 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 2,252$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.39 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 1,024$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.56 | 2,319 | 51.1%1,184 W · 1,135 L | +26.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 450.7$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.8 | 3,541 | 51%1,805 W · 1,736 L | +53.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 356$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.2 | 588 | 52.9%311 W · 277 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 299.98$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.99 | 595 | 52.6%313 W · 282 L | +13.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 165$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners | 47c | 162.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.35 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 80.78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Seattle Mariners | 47c | 61.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 3,465 | 51.2%1,774 W · 1,691 L | +105.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 60.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 59.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 76c | 40.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 4,197 | 50.2%2,106 W · 2,091 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 39.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 768 | 58.1%446 W · 322 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 36.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 23.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 3,857 | 42.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb30…97e8backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 16.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.