MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4107c45fb06a6903b12d7b5c94978ea42f0dbb87cca5088dd032656556624f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 491 | 50.9%250 W · 241 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Under | 50c | 8,650$4,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,325.18 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 6,050$3,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,167.53 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 4,645$1,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,762.29 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 48c | 4,227$2,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,029.01 | 486 | 48.8%237 W · 249 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 3,396$2,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.27 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 52c | 2,563$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.23 | 1,593 | 48.6%774 W · 819 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 51c | 1,559$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.91 | 3,541 | 51%1,805 W · 1,736 L | +53.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Under | 52c | 1,280$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.39 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 1,202$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.46 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 50c | 1,024$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512 | 2,319 | 51.1%1,184 W · 1,135 L | +26.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 50c | 895.83$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.92 | 1,849 | 50.7%937 W · 912 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 48c | 870.25$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.72 | 904 | 53.5%484 W · 420 L | +24.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 826.4$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.58 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 471.02$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.63 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Under | 51c | 471$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.79 | 718 | 50.1%360 W · 358 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 48c | 469$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.12 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Over | 49c | 439.56$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.39 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 51c | 301.76$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.86 | 413 | 41.2%170 W · 243 L | -21.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 52c | 300.04$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.02 | 459 | 58.4%268 W · 191 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 23c | 296$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 837 | 42.8%358 W · 479 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 28c | 258$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 52c | 240$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 26c | 230.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 32c | 203$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.85 | 2,150 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,071 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 49c | 173.47$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.47 | 747 | 43.4%324 W · 423 L | -15.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 28c | 157.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 6,128 | 55.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L | +347.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Under | 52c | 129.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…e1cbbacked Under | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 48c | 118$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 396 | 40.7%161 W · 235 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 1,150 | 31.7%365 W · 785 L | -95.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 45c | 73.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 29c | 66.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 65c | 63.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 768 | 58.1%446 W · 322 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 17c | 62.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 4,428 | 45.1%1,996 W · 2,432 L | +87.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 49c | 60.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 652 | 52.5%342 W · 310 L | +28.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…86c3backed Over | 48c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 43.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,857 | 42.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Over | 48c | 40.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 40.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 3,018 | 48%1,448 W · 1,570 L | +14.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 67c | 39.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Under | 51c | 34.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 60c | 32.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 2,593 | 61.5%1,595 W · 998 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 61c | 32.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 51c | 32.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…79c3backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…dd35backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…cebabacked Over | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb224…dfa6backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 63c | 18.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.