MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54136c264c237970b0499ca89e86c28fa2d17f654d4a79a0d66fcbb76c3ae1fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Under | 58c | 5,968$3,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,509.55 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 3,622$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.65 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 40c | 2,836$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.27 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x595d…9ad0backed Under | 61c | 2,271$1,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.92 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 61c | 2,219$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.09 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 39c | 1,684$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.83 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Over | 39c | 1,553$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.59 | 718 | 50.1%360 W · 358 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 30c | 1,547$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.96 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 41c | 832.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.87 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 41c | 819.11$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.83 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 40c | 495.18$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.57 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 75c | 474.85$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.23 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 59c | 293.72$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.43 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 262.04$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.67 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x666b…6706backed Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 42c | 230.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.21 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 66c | 162.23$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 39c | 150$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 44c | 134$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 39c | 131.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 39c | 112.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 59c | 95.66$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 45c | 91.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…d276backed Over | 27c | 90.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 69c | 84.65$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 65c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 32c | 76.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Over | 37c | 66.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 60c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 56c | 62.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 63c | 57.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 60c | 49.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Over | 40c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…86c3backed Over | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 41c | 35.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 35c | 30.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Under | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +10.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Under | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.