Fifa International · resolved market
Will Turkey beat Wales?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd626f85b805357172a82f04cfda8bfdd3694558beb4fa8c20205503c8815e618
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 42c | 4,974$2,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,861.31 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 57c | 2,339$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.27 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 59c | 2,318$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.96 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 36c | 1,435$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ba…f893backed Yes | 56c | 1,400$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…3b89backed No | 43c | 1,400$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 65c | 1,329$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.59 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -6.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Yes | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 58c | 901.04$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.59 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…1461backed Yes | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7a…ae07backed Yes | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7946…1c01backed No | 42c | 499.99$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…fbe0backed No | 42c | 499.91$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15df…9465backed Yes | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 42c | 437.96$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.06 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 58c | 429.33$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.19 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 44c | 357.56$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ef…3abdbacked Yes | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…72d7backed Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…cdaabacked No | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 60cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 39c | 199.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.49 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 57c | 176.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.43 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked No | 43c | 175$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.75 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…6fe5backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 25.8%33 W · 95 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 59c | 168.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe25…d7fbbacked Yes | 61c | 165.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…9d2fbacked Yes | 57c | 160$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed No | 42c | 146.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4c…57a9backed Yes | 60c | 130.83$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed No | 41c | 118$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Yes | 58c | 108.62$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…fc55backed Yes | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…85efbacked Yes | 64c | 88.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 40c | 69.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b0…19dbbacked Yes | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…0fb9backed Yes | 59c | 51.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…b92fbacked Yes | 58c | 50.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 58c | 47.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 48c | 40.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe43…c5b1backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…0d45backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6556…329fbacked Yes | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c53…07c6backed Yes | 58c | 18.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Turkey beat Wales?this page
- Will Wales beat Turkey?No won
- Will the match between Turkey and Wales end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.