TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,061
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,463

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,061 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x74ec…0959backed Under78c3,740$2,919 inLost-$2,919.361154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over44c2,920$1,277 inWon+$1,643.178,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under49c2,456$1,210 inLost-$1,210.1511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Under1c1,500$15 inLost-$151085.6%6 W · 102 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick2cpaid+339.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over37c1,118$415 inWon+$703.763,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Under46c1,085$500 inLost-$50029950.5%151 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over22c965.05$212 inWon+$752.744,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under63c959.06$604 inLost-$604.3110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over33c700.68$232 inWon+$469.128,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over34c665.27$228 inWon+$43712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Over40c414.9$164 inWon+$250.5577353.9%417 W · 356 L+35.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over40c404.46$160 inWon+$244.569,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over32c342$109 inWon+$232.5627254.4%148 W · 124 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over34c311.58$106 inWon+$205.268,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Over19c263.16$50 inWon+$213.1663943.3%277 W · 362 L+1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Over19c205$39 inWon+$166.157046.8%267 W · 303 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over36c176$63 inWon+$112.644,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a0c…14cebacked Over33c111.03$37 inWon+$74.3914555.9%81 W · 64 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Under63c107.11$67 inLost-$67.4891252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ebc…01c6backed Under45c86.78$39 inLost-$399243.5%40 W · 52 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Under14c70$10 inLost-$10.0943043%185 W · 245 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Over69c40$28 inWon+$12.41,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Under46c40$18 inLost-$18.435341.1%145 W · 208 L-16.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94b4…7d38backed Over32c35.31$11 inWon+$23.99944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff29…f008backed Under68c25$17 inLost-$1711949.6%59 W · 60 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.