MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x764529f6e7b552866b11943434c2d9497c206d808dd17feb52850885653f6888
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Over | 50c | 4,523$2,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,261.65 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 50c | 4,372$2,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,203.18 | 3,562 | 51%1,817 W · 1,745 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 3,570$1,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,815.45 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 50c | 2,734$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368.16 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,219 | 40.4%493 W · 726 L | -33.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 49c | 1,800$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918 | 881 | 52.9%466 W · 415 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 1c | 1,502$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,548 | 48.6%753 W · 795 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 988.02$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.31 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 50c | 903.76$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.88 | 4,555 | 49.2%2,239 W · 2,316 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 838.73$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.23 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 49c | 816.53$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 302 | 51%154 W · 148 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 50c | 801$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.5 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 728.98$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.26 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 75c | 578.72$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.87 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 47c | 541.04$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.28 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 51c | 452.33$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.64 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Under | 50c | 436$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 319.48$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.28 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 50c | 301.8$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.9 | 413 | 41.2%170 W · 243 L | -21.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…ed44backed Over | 49c | 206.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.12 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 10c | 139.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 433 | 43%186 W · 247 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 53c | 137.75$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 51c | 106.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 1,604 | 48.6%779 W · 825 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 597 | 52.6%314 W · 283 L | +13.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…4fb1backed Over | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 147 | 59.9%88 W · 59 L | +14.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 32c | 65.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 51c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…5e53backed Over | 79c | 33.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…e223backed Over | 47c | 31.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,327 | 51.1%1,188 W · 1,139 L | +26.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 38c | 27.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb76…28f3backed Under | 53c | 24.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…6ea2backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…89acbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-7.5)Texas Rangers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.