Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6a39a89cee85c450df83cae507a3ef8d8c1c8cbc6bd3ea2c9987b69aa9ce0f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 74c | 295.38$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 46c | 216.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.55 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 215.61$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 215.28$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 46c | 195.46$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed No | 40c | 183.49$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.01 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked Yes | 59c | 170.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 60c | 139.74$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 44c | 135.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.97 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 134.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 49c | 124.35$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 107.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 57c | 101.2$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 54c | 94.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 93.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 53c | 85.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 52c | 79.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 49c | 77.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 61c | 75.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 53c | 73.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 54c | 65.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…95d5backed No | 57c | 63.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 62c | 58.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 48.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 62c | 48.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 50c | 43.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 46c | 41.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 40.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 51c | 36.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 35.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 34.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 63c | 31.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf61…7c8bbacked Yes | 64c | 28.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 64c | 27.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 25.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 25.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 24.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 22.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 56c | 22.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 50c | 22.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 49c | 21.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 55c | 21.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…0f87backed No | 53c | 21.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4202…5a37backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.