Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x901d5822d9906add8627cf6676017428bdd0041fa5be42408418cb772d879de5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 402.95$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 34c | 395.59$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 221.37$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 198.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed No | 65c | 192.98$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 68c | 177.66$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…e99fbacked Yes | 32c | 172.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 31c | 160.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 31c | 133.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 45c | 131.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 35c | 123.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 29c | 121.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 99.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 97.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 32c | 96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 73c | 96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 85.49$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 81.83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 80.04$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 69c | 76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 69c | 73.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 71c | 68.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 37c | 64.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 31c | 64.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 63.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 40c | 61.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 71c | 59.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 51c | 54.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 54.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be9…446ebacked Yes | 35c | 51.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 50.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 72c | 47.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 29c | 44.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 51c | 43.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 40.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 32c | 38.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 29c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 44c | 37.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 32c | 36.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…bce9backed Yes | 47c | 36.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 70c | 35.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 67c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 31.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 30.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 73c | 30.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 29.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 28.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 68c | 25.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 74c | 20.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x136a…70e8backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 65c | 19.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 68c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 65c | 18.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 61c | 18.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 67c | 18.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 65c | 16.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 15.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 65c | 15.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210a…29c8backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 14.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 72c | 14.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 75c | 13.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.