CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs TDK - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6c6476a4e803a64fac4cc1e0dd90ff264bfae05b90c9ebb1b8327311480791c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 100 Thievesof 100 Thieves, TDK
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7600…4478backed TDK | 46c | 1,589$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.14 | 282 | 48.9%138 W · 144 L | +21.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked 100 Thieves | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 558 | 43.5%243 W · 315 L | -16.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed 100 Thieves | 47c | 1,443$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.55 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked 100 Thieves | 50c | 1,168$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.72 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…80c3backed TDK | 44c | 1,126$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 333 | 59.8%199 W · 134 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked TDK | 51c | 900$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.8 | 946 | 45.8%433 W · 513 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb600…4440backed 100 Thieves | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8668…7f8fbacked TDK | 52c | 419.11$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 100 Thieves | 49c | 326.57$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.08 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked TDK | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 432 | 37.7%163 W · 269 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…c0e5backed 100 Thieves | 58c | 299.99$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 364 | 46.7%170 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed TDK | 19c | 272.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…fcbdbacked TDK | 61c | 267.85$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.19 | 354 | 49.7%176 W · 178 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…fb3dbacked TDK | 51c | 216.55$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 354 | 66.1%234 W · 120 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked TDK | 44c | 179.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.72 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2212backed TDK | 20c | 149.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked TDK | 52c | 142.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed 100 Thieves | 51c | 120.31$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ff…6431backed TDK | 51c | 111.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 231 | 65.8%152 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked 100 Thieves | 71c | 100.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 154 | 41.6%64 W · 90 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked 100 Thieves | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93af…32abbacked 100 Thieves | 39c | 97.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf0…e384backed TDK | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 331 | 53.5%177 W · 154 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aff…86b9backed 100 Thieves | 47c | 54.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed TDK | 35c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 489 | 43.6%213 W · 276 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…a1d3backed TDK | 62c | 46.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 265 | 64.2%170 W · 95 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf348…e543backed TDK | 77c | 45.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 230 | 72.6%167 W · 63 L | +27.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked TDK | 54c | 44.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -19.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed TDK | 34c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed TDK | 30c | 39.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed 100 Thieves | 33c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 447 | 48.1%215 W · 232 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7344…98f6backed 100 Thieves | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…f3e6backed 100 Thieves | 42c | 27.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 419 | 38.9%163 W · 256 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs TDK - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs TDK (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs100 Thieves won
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs TDK - Map 2 Winner100 Thieves won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs TDK (+1.5)100 Thieves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.