CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs TDK - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x477ce685fed96b6d514028807b1f127a9e2ae9daf1fb29098cc86c1d032b63c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 100 Thievesof 100 Thieves, TDK
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8668…7f8fbacked TDK | 34c | 1,343$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed TDK | 46c | 1,260$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.7 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked TDK | 47c | 1,222$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.76 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16b…b541backed 100 Thieves | 53c | 999.96$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.98 | 434 | 55.1%239 W · 195 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked TDK | 16c | 554.16$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.46 | 352 | 42.9%151 W · 201 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed TDK | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…c0e5backed 100 Thieves | 65c | 455$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.25 | 364 | 46.7%170 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…9d8cbacked TDK | 35c | 439.67$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.88 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb600…4440backed 100 Thieves | 50c | 360.12$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.06 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf348…e543backed 100 Thieves | 72c | 289.67$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.79 | 230 | 72.6%167 W · 63 L | +27.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked 100 Thieves | 65c | 282.83$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.77 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed 100 Thieves | 50c | 251$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.5 | 332 | 37%123 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed 100 Thieves | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 608 | 38.2%232 W · 376 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…80c3backed 100 Thieves | 66c | 238.98$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 333 | 59.8%199 W · 134 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked TDK | 35c | 237.16$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked TDK | 47c | 196.38$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed TDK | 19c | 195.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked 100 Thieves | 58c | 194.56$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.96 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked TDK | 37c | 184.87$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.77 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed TDK | 37c | 137.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed TDK | 43c | 120.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc400…21a7backed 100 Thieves | 38c | 104.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed 100 Thieves | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 293 | 47.8%140 W · 153 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed 100 Thieves | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 332 | 41.6%138 W · 194 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked 100 Thieves | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8a…8730backed 100 Thieves | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…5ea0backed 100 Thieves | 78c | 91.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed 100 Thieves | 73c | 79.29$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked TDK | 32c | 75.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 275 | 49.5%136 W · 139 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed 100 Thieves | 48c | 60.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 299 | 34.4%103 W · 196 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked 100 Thieves | 67c | 54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed TDK | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 250 | 42.8%107 W · 143 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed 100 Thieves | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 447 | 48.1%215 W · 232 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed 100 Thieves | 61c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 579 | 35.1%203 W · 376 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aff…86b9backed 100 Thieves | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked 100 Thieves | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 363 | 34.2%124 W · 239 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed 100 Thieves | 64c | 31.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked 100 Thieves | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff2…8ea1backed 100 Thieves | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed 100 Thieves | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 452 | 40.3%182 W · 270 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed 100 Thieves | 61c | 18.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 368 | 45.9%169 W · 199 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…f3e6backed 100 Thieves | 66c | 16.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 419 | 38.9%163 W · 256 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs TDK - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs TDK (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs100 Thieves won
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs TDK - Map 1 Winner100 Thieves won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs TDK (+1.5)100 Thieves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.