Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6d1102d2dde241ad280367c59777f3dfda9481aaa4857dcdd694515d242c8db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Alexandrova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Sabalenka | 63c | 4,011$2,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,495.32 | 361 | 45.2%163 W · 198 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Sabalenka | 59c | 3,509$2,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.36 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Alexandrova | 41c | 2,586$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.44 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Alexandrova | 41c | 940.98$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.44 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Alexandrova | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Alexandrova | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Sabalenka | 59c | 634.93$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.32 | 798 | 55.9%446 W · 352 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Alexandrova | 42c | 599.99$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04c7…c7a7backed Alexandrova | 42c | 499.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…f792backed Sabalenka | 58c | 463.79$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.79 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Alexandrova | 42c | 454.16$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.52 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Alexandrova | 37c | 414.4$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.33 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Alexandrova | 37c | 389.19$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Sabalenka | 54c | 369.97$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.44 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Alexandrova | 42c | 352.47$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.29 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Alexandrova | 39c | 319.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Alexandrova | 42c | 319.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8d…4f5cbacked Alexandrova | 46c | 314.82$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.82 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Alexandrova | 37c | 297.3$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Alexandrova | 37c | 272.52$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.78 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Alexandrova | 37c | 267.57$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…7661backed Sabalenka | 61c | 243.49$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 233 | 52.8%123 W · 110 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked Alexandrova | 42c | 197$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.74 | 389 | 52.2%203 W · 186 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Alexandrova | 42c | 177.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…801ebacked Sabalenka | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 307 | 49.8%153 W · 154 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8287…059ebacked Sabalenka | 58c | 171.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Alexandrova | 46c | 163.26$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Sabalenka | 60c | 156$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…f4ffbacked Sabalenka | 59c | 124$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Alexandrova | 37c | 110.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Sabalenka | 59c | 109.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Sabalenka | 58c | 104.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…64cebacked Sabalenka | 58c | 102.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Alexandrova | 37c | 102.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…7cedbacked Sabalenka | 56c | 99.61$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Sabalenka | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Sabalenka | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Sabalenka | 69c | 76.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 374 | 36.4%136 W · 238 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Alexandrova | 37c | 75.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…5a52backed Sabalenka | 57c | 73.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Sabalenka | 57c | 73.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 1,639 | 55.1%903 W · 736 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked Alexandrova | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Alexandrova | 37c | 51.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 485 | 52.4%254 W · 231 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee3…6d33backed Sabalenka | 61c | 45.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…a6b0backed Sabalenka | 64c | 42.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…0827backed Alexandrova | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Alexandrova | 46c | 23.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Sabalenka | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Sabalenka | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5)this page
- Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina AlexandrovaAryna Sabalenka won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs AlexandrovaSabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.