Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: New Mexico Lobos (-27.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6ef6e247d51a870a444b538ec5f7c47a346dd17fb69b392c0dc3996e0f11a77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New Mexico Lobosof New Mexico Lobos, Air Force Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed New Mexico Lobos | 52c | 7,280$3,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,494.4 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7af9…b408backed Air Force Falcons | 48c | 5,158$2,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,476 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Air Force Falcons | 48c | 2,255$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.16 | 445 | 49.4%220 W · 225 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…ad14backed New Mexico Lobos | 54c | 740.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.74 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Air Force Falcons | 46c | 634$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.64 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Air Force Falcons | 46c | 548.52$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.93 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed New Mexico Lobos | 58c | 469.14$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.39 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked New Mexico Lobos | 52c | 307.22$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.47 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Air Force Falcons | 49c | 215.77$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.73 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed New Mexico Lobos | 54c | 176.2$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 239 | 48.1%115 W · 124 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed New Mexico Lobos | 64c | 126.47$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked New Mexico Lobos | 52c | 125.21$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Air Force Falcons | 28c | 124.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca3…0a58backed New Mexico Lobos | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed New Mexico Lobos | 68c | 90.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Air Force Falcons | 41c | 84.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf926…fb21backed Air Force Falcons | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Air Force Falcons | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…417cbacked Air Force Falcons | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Air Force Falcons | 48c | 57.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 423 | 39.2%166 W · 257 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Air Force Falcons | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1e…5a2abacked New Mexico Lobos | 54c | 48.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…e197backed Air Force Falcons | 48c | 47.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…4e7abacked New Mexico Lobos | 45c | 42.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Air Force Falcons | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New Mexico Lobos | 45c | 37.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Air Force Falcons | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed New Mexico Lobos | 52c | 25.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 427 | 51.8%221 W · 206 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New Mexico Lobos | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed New Mexico Lobos | 53c | 24.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 383 | 51.7%198 W · 185 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked New Mexico Lobos | 65c | 20.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New Mexico Lobos (-27.5)this page
- Air Force Falcons vs. New Mexico LobosNew Mexico Lobos won
- Air Force Falcons vs. New Mexico Lobos: O/U 147.5Over won
- Air Force Falcons vs. New Mexico Lobos: O/U 148.5Over won
- Spread: New Mexico Lobos (-28.5)New Mexico Lobos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.