Bundesliga · resolved market
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6f51130580e8781979c243dde27c690d802a164c880c42beab38f6bb2ae9873
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 3c | 813.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 60c | 553.72$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.34 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 46c | 535.74$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.69 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 46c | 387.46$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.14 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…1a45backed No | 55c | 370.18$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3f…5a9fbacked Yes | 46c | 326.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…af95backed No | 9c | 226.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…931abacked No | 54c | 201.61$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80aa…e8eabacked No | 13c | 164.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked No | 14c | 148.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed No | 55c | 99.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed No | 16c | 99.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 48c | 99.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 77c | 84.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 53c | 82.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 70c | 78.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed No | 53c | 73.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 53c | 72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed No | 53c | 70.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 48c | 62.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361f…5edabacked Yes | 46c | 47.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 48c | 45.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb5…8740backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…9886backed Yes | 45c | 32.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed No | 53c | 31.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 52c | 24.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed No | 55c | 23.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…5300backed No | 54c | 20.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8431…ee9cbacked No | 53c | 20.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund leading at halftime?this page
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Draw at halftime?No won
- Eintracht Frankfurt leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.