Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6f9aef5387d0a45ef0bf20babfe73034f813e0478bab27ee2d1f0677e70ea34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 20c | 230.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 214.95$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.97 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 14c | 179.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 70c | 160.61$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 67c | 150.1$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 148.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 43c | 146.48$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 35c | 135.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 67c | 129.76$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 127.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 35c | 121.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 117.52$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed No | 60c | 113.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…ceb0backed Yes | 63c | 102.43$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 67c | 84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 42c | 78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 60c | 76.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed Yes | 69c | 72.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 46c | 66.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 68c | 66.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 48c | 62.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 75c | 61.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 72c | 59.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 60c | 59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 52.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 59c | 46.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 72c | 45.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…baf4backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed Yes | 62c | 28.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 60c | 23.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 59c | 20.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 70c | 19.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 17.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…2e9fbacked Yes | 72c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36e…c744backed Yes | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.