Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: skebob vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd70bc16d1db9a01cabcc5a0e201b974b1ae3bc6992a6ba15c1c4a8d96e06d6ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- skebobof skebob, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26f8…3452backed skebob | 72c | 652.23$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.91 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d24…6564backed AVULUS | 28c | 581$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed AVULUS | 40c | 377.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked skebob | 50c | 328.12$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.69 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed AVULUS | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked skebob | 67c | 263.11$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.73 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked AVULUS | 56c | 262.73$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.13 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3295…07afbacked AVULUS | 25c | 201.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked skebob | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed AVULUS | 29c | 127.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked skebob | 73c | 110.89$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7eebbacked skebob | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed skebob | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AVULUS | 54c | 71.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked skebob | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked AVULUS | 52c | 57.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…514cbacked AVULUS | 24c | 54.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 338 | 45.6%154 W · 184 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed AVULUS | 44c | 43.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2e…5c89backed AVULUS | 58c | 42.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked AVULUS | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed skebob | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed skebob | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bd…c27fbacked skebob | 68c | 38.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: skebob vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: skebob vs AVULUS (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsAVULUS won
- Dota 2: skebob vs AVULUS - Game 2 WinnerAVULUS won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.