Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: skebob vs AVULUS (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f4e5b34b616c796b5a11eed9bb6ddc92154e74c61b3c6b36615cf22e032bca2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AVULUSof skebob, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked skebob | 35c | 4,661$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.46 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked skebob | 44c | 2,631$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.53 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AVULUS | 52c | 2,037$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.66 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1b…b963backed AVULUS | 72c | 2,000$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked AVULUS | 80c | 1,249$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.26 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed AVULUS | 39c | 799.98$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.99 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed skebob | 46c | 733.45$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.52 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe869…c67abacked skebob | 46c | 693$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…d5dfbacked AVULUS | 37c | 650.05$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.74 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf67a…f5debacked skebob | 46c | 616$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked skebob | 66c | 602.1$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.05 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2905…6255backed AVULUS | 67c | 561.01$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.37 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked skebob | 16c | 527.16$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed AVULUS | 57c | 525.39$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.49 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed skebob | 47c | 524.68$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.64 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed skebob | 49c | 464.8$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.04 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked skebob | 62c | 454.56$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.17 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked AVULUS | 53c | 451.72$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.31 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed skebob | 59c | 420.41$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…4557backed AVULUS | 54c | 393$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…e599backed skebob | 54c | 371$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.63 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -7.6wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…c501backed AVULUS | 54c | 310$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc2…f578backed AVULUS | 54c | 306$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.76 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…ea7dbacked AVULUS | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked AVULUS | 47c | 290.4$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.46 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b65…e344backed AVULUS | 45c | 271.2$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked AVULUS | 57c | 262.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.09 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked AVULUS | 45c | 236.87$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.4 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked skebob | 53c | 234.2$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked AVULUS | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a3…60a2backed AVULUS | 39c | 199.61$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed AVULUS | 49c | 196.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.15 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2e…5c89backed AVULUS | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed AVULUS | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…2b47backed AVULUS | 63c | 156.22$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd6…686fbacked skebob | 68c | 151.31$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02e…8fb2backed AVULUS | 61c | 140.15$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed skebob | 79c | 107.21$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed AVULUS | 51c | 106.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked skebob | 73c | 96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed skebob | 23c | 95.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked skebob | 14c | 83.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed AVULUS | 62c | 79.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked AVULUS | 52c | 76.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed skebob | 58c | 71.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…e0cebacked skebob | 48c | 67.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe66d…97acbacked skebob | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7730…df57backed skebob | 50c | 64.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…00b3backed AVULUS | 65c | 58.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed skebob | 37c | 57.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6760…3ad4backed skebob | 70c | 56.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2245…1efabacked AVULUS | 80c | 50.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c0…35cfbacked AVULUS | 61c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3275…de1ebacked AVULUS | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked AVULUS | 36c | 38.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed skebob | 43c | 34.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5c…8fcfbacked skebob | 69c | 28.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb62a…0880backed AVULUS | 37c | 28.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +169.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46a…f70abacked AVULUS | 49c | 27.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec48…d04cbacked AVULUS | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e2…89a5backed AVULUS | 77c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1a07backed skebob | 51c | 23.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc8…67f7backed skebob | 60c | 20.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 191 | 62.8%120 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…70e6backed AVULUS | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df0…1d17backed AVULUS | 61c | 18.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd31f…7c1ebacked AVULUS | 56c | 17.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1981…3867backed skebob | 67c | 15.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: skebob vs AVULUS (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: skebob vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winnerskebob won
- Dota 2: skebob vs AVULUS - Game 2 WinnerAVULUS won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.