AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd714f52664480976c5686caf0b6a4e9f2257351642274f58bb267022d90d10ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 10c | 732.61$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 15c | 490.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 32c | 477.8$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.2 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3665…864bbacked Yes | 9c | 197.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 57c | 194.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.49 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 191.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Yes | 24c | 151.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…eda2backed Yes | 14c | 116.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…6f83backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9b…2d24backed Yes | 12c | 91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134f…cdb6backed No | 56c | 70.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +165%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…d697backed Yes | 21c | 70.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…d015backed Yes | 57c | 30.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?this page
- Will CapCut - Video Editor be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?No won
- Will GoWish - Your Digital Wishlist be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?Yes won
- Will Sora be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?No won
- Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.