TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,291
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,470

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,291 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e0e…12b3backed Yes79c2,728$2,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No27c2,476$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.016453.1%34 W · 30 L+12.9wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+95.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No27c1,829$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.466434.4%22 W · 42 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+100.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3a3…c2f9backed Yes74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-66.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7ba…c073backed Yes70c999.98$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No18c914.52$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.175028%14 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-21.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc193…872dbacked Yes65c649$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.15560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1584…71b6backed No5c645.34$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.27425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ac3…eda2backed No28c616.46$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.41825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-53.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a75…5271backed No32c609.99$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.71040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes72c569.13$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.8145738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6513…8c10backed No15c510.88$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0210034%34 W · 66 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+23%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No16c393.72$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3957426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c56…e85ebacked Yes75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No26c290.17$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6825122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73ce…ba6bbacked Yes76c246$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bb6…32b9backed Yes75c201.33$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No38c200$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.969850%49 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce32…a145backed No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf82c…0f6fbacked No27c190$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa7…0b13backed No30c166.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.87650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a9c…fc2bbacked No32c155.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No49c150.85$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.188041.3%33 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes70c150$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d88…b0c4backed Yes73c150$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.53132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes72c139.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No39c134.84$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.947852.6%41 W · 37 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7220…6fdebacked Yes41c130.61$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc083…0376backed Yes73c127.3$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x399a…1482backed Yes70c126.8$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No24c120.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.181,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No34c115.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9920148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa56f…7c77backed Yes77c108.2$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.75450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e40…73bdbacked Yes67c107.87$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.211040%4 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-42.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb65e…3e11backed No33c105.58$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.792744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd482…b402backed Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ede…b67bbacked Yes68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd042…215fbacked Yes73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…6f83backed Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-46.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0190…e03abacked Yes69c99.99$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9972…c3a6backed Yes77c99.98$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23475%3 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick78cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No26c96.05$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6889317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x4dac…f726backed No21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10e1…97d5backed Yes75c80.29$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.29450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33da…f818backed Yes70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7957…ddbcbacked Yes55c69.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b25…f0d6backed Yes70c69.64$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.64425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-64.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed No35c67.9$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.823432.4%11 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57d3…1920backed Yes80c59.65$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8a…9f2abacked No25c57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.381533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+91.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0b8…16f6backed Yes74c54.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick71cpaid-55%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa24f…3b77backed Yes66c52.96$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0302…8fe8backed Yes78c52.21$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.67757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc441…fb83backed Yes78c49.84$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.846100%6 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2d1…d015backed Yes73c49.32$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.32666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7fc…a221backed Yes74c45.73$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2209…aa48backed Yes69c40.58$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5519…1c6cbacked Yes75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick76cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7cb…2f62backed Yes62c38.24$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.573100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad1b…5da0backed Yes68c36.76$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.76633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe659…baf4backed No31c36.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa34…29bcbacked Yes70c36.64$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed No43c34.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6911836.4%43 W · 75 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb7b…a42ebacked Yes73c34.11$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8959…68e2backed Yes75c33.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…a888backed Yes78c32.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.053076.7%23 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49da…3b0cbacked Yes73c31.44$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c88…3921backed Yes66c30.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e1…921ebacked Yes66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x271e…2fc6backed Yes68c29.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f35…517dbacked Yes71c27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9956…ec0cbacked Yes78c26.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.732100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfac…490fbacked Yes77c26.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.057100%7 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+62.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xba8e…e305backed Yes77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.973100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+46.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa960…a9fdbacked Yes78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa1…f742backed Yes63c25.21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.212147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b30…5fdabacked Yes71c24.28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ae…e0a9backed Yes71c22.39$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec8…e6c4backed Yes71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…acedbacked Yes73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x296e…2637backed Yes79c18.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.99560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e6a…d3a2backed Yes79c18.66$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.98366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick77cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1846…24b7backed Yes69c17.45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb506…832dbacked Yes71c16.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb6b…6266backed Yes74c14.78$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.78580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.