MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd72ec3468c9ccfeefe3b4d3d377f56c1972278781464640027fba65aa603c193
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Over | 49c | 19,167$9,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,391.75 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 11,714$6,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,666.88 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 50c | 3,284$1,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,636.22 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 3,009$1,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,504.32 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 51c | 2,127$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.68 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 51c | 2,127$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.68 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 51c | 2,127$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.68 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 51c | 1,896$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.38 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 48c | 1,707$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.19 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Under | 52c | 1,625$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.95 | 169 | 47.9%81 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 51c | 1,462$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.55 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Over | 50c | 1,418$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.16 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 47c | 1,287$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.51 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 42c | 989.72$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.27 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 51c | 944.54$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.12 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 52c | 736.07$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.86 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 51c | 632.14$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.75 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 581.49$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.93 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaa…3858backed Under | 52c | 517.35$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.33 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Under | 51c | 380.63$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.51 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under | 52c | 355.44$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.35 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 52c | 355.44$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.35 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 51c | 229.67$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.54 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 53c | 217.7$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.35 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Under | 51c | 215$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.35 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 49c | 197.44$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 249 | 50.6%126 W · 123 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Over | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 53c | 183.28$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.11 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 53c | 183.28$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.11 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 53c | 183.28$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.11 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 51c | 177.52$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.99 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 10c | 176.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 40c | 148.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 51c | 145.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 19c | 125.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…8c66backed Under | 54c | 123.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 54c | 123.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 54c | 117.42$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 49c | 101.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Under | 52c | 92.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Under | 60c | 87.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b0f7backed Over | 49c | 75.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f04…8c19backed Over | 50c | 64.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 42cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 22c | 62.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 45c | 60.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…85edbacked Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 40c | 58.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 45c | 52.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 51c | 48.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Under | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 39c | 43.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Under | 51c | 42.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 51c | 41.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8c…880abacked Under | 52c | 37.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…f5dcbacked Over | 47c | 37.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Under | 51c | 36.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 51c | 35.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 51c | 35.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 60c | 33.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 62c | 33.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 211 | 53.6%113 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 49c | 30.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 57c | 29.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed Over | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 65c | 27.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97a8…078dbacked Under | 51c | 23.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 87 | 64.4%56 W · 31 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 70c | 20.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47a2…36ddbacked Over | 49c | 20.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.