MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15e7269d6eabd1cc89665b3a179466d929054cffbac940e9a3010c09a6b77ef2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Baltimore Orioles, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 2,768$1,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.45 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 1,628$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.01 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 965.2$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.59 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 903.69$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.29 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 682.7$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.39 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 620.53$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.26 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 599.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 544.54$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.52 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…66bbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 509.21$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.54 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 495.26$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.01 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 413.8$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.24 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 329.67$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.38 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…4ce0backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 264.36$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.17 | 161 | 55.9%90 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 163.02$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 120.49$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 28c | 117.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 112$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 103.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…b181backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 77.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 67.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…98e9backed Baltimore Orioles | 22c | 65.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 63.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9e55…f5a3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 77c | 58.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee5b…dac8backed Baltimore Orioles | 22c | 57.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 51.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 48.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 36.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 35.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 33.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 32.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 32.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe4…ff5cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 31.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 21.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 21.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 21.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 18.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.