MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7430add4a7cf3759adfc84c36a91c014f23b83f563c9d60905afb2cf703d9cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 54c | 15,000$8,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,949.95 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 57c | 10,000$5,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,310.65 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 6,365$2,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,985.73 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Under | 47c | 4,551$2,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,138.81 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 4,362$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,832.58 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Under | 46c | 3,913$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 43c | 3,445$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.54 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 50c | 1,337$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.56 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 50c | 1,223$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.5 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 46c | 1,035$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.1 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 868.25$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.13 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 47c | 457.38$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.97 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ff…9d91backed Under | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.1%88 W · 116 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 409.81$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 50c | 384.61$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.31 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 50c | 197.1$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.55 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 46c | 190$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 55c | 182.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.96 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 43c | 163.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 46c | 151$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 45c | 149.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 57c | 119$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 17c | 118.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 50c | 101.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Under | 43c | 94.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 45c | 94.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…32d8backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 45c | 87.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 46c | 87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 46c | 76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 45c | 67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 45c | 66.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 46c | 66.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 54c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Under | 46c | 61.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 47c | 60.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 53c | 60.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 52c | 53.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 48c | 52.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 43c | 44.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce2…957fbacked Under | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 47c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…4b12backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 52c | 36.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Under | 46c | 34.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 49c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 60c | 32.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 45c | 29.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Under | 43c | 28.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…e861backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 69c | 24.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 22.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed Over | 55c | 19.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 97 | 35.1%34 W · 63 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White SoxSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.