MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13b4ff5f5afb4dba74bc7e969ee54aa38b05892819ec808b63f33b9f383cca5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 3,470$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,138.95 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 2,633$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 2,171$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.99 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 1,511$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.35 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 750.73$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.42 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 706.63$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.19 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…9ea3backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 534.88$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.88 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 405.27$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.34 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 404.01$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.05 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 364.29$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 239.02$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 221.73$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 191.94$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.41 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…2096backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 131.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 119.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 113.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 106.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 102.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.95 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 88.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 82.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 67.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 65.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x403a…3173backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 60.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 60.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Chicago White Sox | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 54.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Seattle Mariners | 65c | 54.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0352…24dabacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 44.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 41.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…5d6cbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 31.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 31.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…213bbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 30.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 23.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White SoxSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.