Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7b8e42210d57716d7bd04c348a042369d00afbe9794ba2231db335fa2f2f089
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 17c | 2,058$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.81 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed No | 3c | 2,015$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked No | 78c | 1,395$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.87 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8498…d219backed Yes | 5c | 1,044$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.74 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +164.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 28c | 524.72$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.95 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…8d6dbacked No | 48c | 363.18$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.53 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 33c | 352.96$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.96 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 350$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.5 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 72c | 182.44$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.78 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd4…d034backed No | 30c | 113$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc354…de11backed No | 63c | 108.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.3wins | -0.54per pick | 71cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…7dd2backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb548…9963backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed Yes | 20c | 87.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +11.8wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 34c | 57.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…b05ebacked Yes | 70c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…0bd5backed Yes | 49c | 41.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 35c | 36.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…2179backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…9189backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc675…18d0backed Yes | 70c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…95ffbacked Yes | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3836…3dd2backed Yes | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on February 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 36°F or below on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 47°F or higher on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 37-38°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 39-40°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.