World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7c90fc4e9e9d912cfc73c50d8533a0e292e431d1ab76f604c61c799110855a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 1,226$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.41 | 471 | 37.6%177 W · 294 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed Yes | 6c | 990.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 3c | 691.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 9c | 342.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 147 | 17%25 W · 122 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 13c | 304.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 21c | 303.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 223.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 309 | 44%136 W · 173 L | -23.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed Yes | 13c | 206.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked No | 80c | 198.11$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 196.15$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 108 | 68.5%74 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 17c | 180$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 66c | 150.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 74cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 26c | 94.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 90.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 233 | 55.8%130 W · 103 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 90.45$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 20c | 85.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 18c | 70.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 69.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 341 | 40.2%137 W · 204 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 37c | 61.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 35c | 36.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 74c | 36.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 38c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 62c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…1e2abacked Yes | 38c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,350 | 44.4%600 W · 750 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…fabebacked No | 73c | 26.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 75cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 60 | 81.7%49 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 77cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 75c | 21.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 100 | 73%73 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.